Arteta’s Arsenal substitutes keep making the difference

Mikel Arteta has made substitutions a decisive tool at Arsenal. This season, his changes have helped secure wins over Nottingham Forest, Sunderland and Leeds: in each of those three Premier League victories, a substitute scored the winning goal. The Forest match was a clear example. Arsenal were struggling to find a breakthrough, and the game appeared to be drifting towards a goalless draw, when Noni Madueke, introduced at half-time, won it for the visitors. He cut inside and struck with his right foot; the heavily deflected shot beat Matz Sels.

Those winners are the only league goals Arsenal substitutes have scored this season. Five teams have scored more through players brought on during matches, with Ipswich leading on five. But every goal scored by an Arsenal substitute has been a winner.

After seven matches, Arsenal are second with 18 points, while Nottingham are 19th with five points, a 13-point difference.

The current rate offers a projection, not a certainty: with substitutes scoring three winners in the opening seven matches, Arsenal would exceed 16 if the team maintained that pace. That outcome is not expected, but the projection underlines the influence of Arteta’s changes so far. This season, four of his Premier League changes have come at the interval; Brentford's six and Aston Villa's five are the only higher totals.

The depth of the squad helps explain the impact: the players Arteta can bring on might be starters for most other Premier League teams, the analysis suggests. Across the past two seasons, Arsenal substitutes have combined for more goals and assists than those of any other side in the league. Across this season and the previous one, 13 different Arsenal substitutes have scored or assisted, more than at any other club.

The impact extends beyond this season. Since Arteta’s appointment in December 2019, Arsenal have scored more winning goals through substitutes than any other team. Among the 81 managers to have taken charge of at least 100 Premier League matches, Arsenal substitutes have scored 12.6% of the club’s goals. Close wins have been a feature of Arteta’s side, giving added significance to changes that have already swung several matches.