Vingegaard tipped to be closer to Pogacar at the Tour

“Vingegaard is going to be much closer” sums up the debate around the next Tour and whether a route could be devised to slow Tadej Pogacar. The views raised in that discussion remain cautious, however: giving rivals more opportunities does not mean a formula for beating the Slovenian has been found.

Nairo Quintana gave a blunt assessment of the gap Pogacar’s rivals may face: “Even at the best point of my career, I could not have competed with Pogacar.” Others believe the route could make the race more engaging without deserving the label “anti-Pogacar”. One describes it as a course that would add “a little more spice”.

The debate centres in part on the time trials. Remco Evenepoel could find opportunities there, gaining time against the clock before potentially losing it in the mountains. One interpretation of the route is that the overall standings could remain closer until late in the Tour. Another view, though, is that “as things stand, there is no anti-Pogacar route on a bicycle”.

The mountains remain a key reservation. One estimate suggests a 58-second advantage over Pogacar from the time trials, but the counterpoint is that “the mountains continue to make a difference”. Pogacar’s ability to recover after three weeks of effort is also described as an asset. Another argument raises the possibility of a change in weight and greater speed uphill, while questioning what that might mean for his time-trial performance.

The opinions cited do not produce a clear consensus on the favourite. Héctor Álvarez, who acknowledges that he has not studied the route, believes Pogacar can adapt whether the course is flat or includes one or two time trials. He calls Pogacar the world’s best rider and expects him to prove it at the Tour. A former Euskaltel rider says rivals have a chance but that taking it will be difficult, and still considers Pogacar the leading favourite, including against the clock.

The route could also suit Evenepoel, while Pogacar still has almost a year to improve in time trials. One contributor believes he may have to push himself harder than in recent years, without ruling him out as favourite. The first week, meanwhile, is described as “very dangerous and very nervous”. Team factors could matter there, although Pogacar has also shown that he can handle such situations. In one contributor’s view, “this race depends on what Tadej does”; another predicts that Vingegaard will be much closer to him at next year’s Tour.