Marc Márquez can clinch his 10th title in Qatar

Marc Márquez has his first opportunity to secure his 10th world title in Qatar. To be crowned this weekend, he must score 30 points more than Martín and 8 more than Bezzecchi. There are 111 points still available in the season, including 74 after the Qatar round.

The picture has changed dramatically. After the Italian Grand Prix, Márquez was 102 points behind then-leader Marco Bezzecchi. Since then, Aprilia’s mistakes and the results of Ducati and Márquez have turned the championship around. Juan Martínez, a MotoGP commentator on DAZN, has also cited those factors in explaining the shift. If Márquez wins the title in Qatar, it would be his 10th world championship, and his eighth in MotoGP.

That prospect seemed out of reach a little over five months ago: at the time, the Spaniard would have struggled to believe he was so close to another crown. Marca’s account says he would even have considered it impossible. His season had begun poorly in Sprint events, where he had managed only three podiums at that stage: two wins and a second place.

The French Grand Prix, at the start of May, then became a turning point. A heavy crash in the Sprint fractured the fifth metatarsal in his right foot and exposed the problems that had kept him from being his usual self. He also missed the Catalan Grand Prix; it was then his fourth non-score in six races. Back at Mugello, he was not yet at the required level and had to contend with two Aprilias considered very strong, ridden by Bezzecchi and Jorge Martín.

His campaign had also been affected by a shoulder problem. After his injury at the Indonesian Grand Prix the previous year, a screw had shifted and was damaging a nerve. When telling his team he would undergo surgery again, Márquez summed up his condition: «A rider with one and a half arms».

In Qatar, another factor shapes the calculations: Jorge Martín’s two non-scores, in the Sprint and Sunday’s race, give Márquez several possible paths. If Martín scores, he cannot take more than seven points, provided Márquez wins both races. Against Bezzecchi, however, Márquez needs an eight-point advantage: seven would not be enough, because the Italian has five wins and could draw level with Márquez’s seven. The Spaniard therefore has his first «match point» in Lusail. A two-season contract extension with Ducati also reflects his ambition to keep winning, but the Qatar title is still to be won.