Mercedes in a commanding position to chase both world titles

Mercedes is on course to return to the top of Formula 1 in 2026. The team is well placed to win both the drivers’ and constructors’ titles, which would be its first double since the pandemic-struck 2020 campaign. Kimi Antonelli and George Russell occupy the top two places in the drivers’ standings, with Antonelli 102 points ahead of Russell. In the constructors’ standings, Mercedes is 134 points clear of second-placed Ferrari.

That advantage has been built on 11 victories in 17 Grands Prix. Most came early in the season, before rivals began to close the gap. The contest remains mathematically open, however: 258 points are still available in the constructors’ championship, provided the Qatar and Abu Dhabi Grands Prix go ahead. Four teams can still win the title. Ferrari is 134 points behind Mercedes, McLaren 239 and Red Bull 246, while fifth-placed Racing Bulls is 478 points adrift.

Austin is not expected to settle the contest between Mercedes and Ferrari. After the United States Grand Prix, 215 points will remain available. Even in the most favourable scenario for Mercedes — a one-two finish for the team and both Ferraris scoring no points — the gap between the teams would reach 177 points. Ferrari would therefore remain within reach: whatever happens in the United States, the Scuderia would not be more than 214 points behind Mercedes, ruling out a decision in the championship next weekend.

McLaren and Red Bull, by contrast, could fall out of contention after Austin. They would need to be within 214 points of Mercedes after the race. But Mercedes has nine more wins than either team: if McLaren or Red Bull cut the gap to 215 points in Texas, the countback on victories would still eliminate them. The calculations therefore leave Ferrari as Mercedes’ main challenger.

The title push marks a return to the front for Mercedes. The team is set for its first drivers’ crown since 2020, following a period of Max Verstappen’s dominance and Lando Norris’s title. The Silver Arrows last won the constructors’ championship in 2021, before Red Bull and then McLaren moved ahead during the ground-effect era.

Antonelli could secure his maiden world title at the next round in Austin, although a triumph a week later in Mexico is considered more likely. Mercedes may have to wait longer for the constructors’ crown. If the favourable Austin scenario comes to pass, the team would then need to ensure Ferrari does not score at least six more points than it in Mexico. After that race, 172 points would remain across the following four Grands Prix, provided Qatar and Abu Dhabi go ahead. The Brazilian Grand Prix is also viewed as a possible opportunity for Mercedes to become champion.